Applied Mathematics Seminar

Unexpected infection spikes in a model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus vaccination
Friday, 17 March 2017 - 12:00 pm to 12:30 pm
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SPEAKER: Robert Smith? (University of Ottawa) DATE: Friday, March 17, 2017 TIME: 12:00 pm ROOM: B015 ABSTRACT: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain (extreme) conditions. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the {\em impulsive reproduction number}, we determine conditions for the period and strength of vaccination that will control (but not eradicate) RSV. In our model, the vaccine waning rate is a critical parameter and more important than coverage for a long-term reduction in RSV prevalence. We recommend that candidate vaccines be tested for sufficient duration of protection before being released.